probability

Probabilistic Problem of Evil

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The classical Problem of Evil attempts to show God's existence is impossible, but things might be easier if we set our sights a little lower. The Probabilistic Problem of Evil attempts to show that the existence of God is improbable. In this video, I will look at a particular strategy for establishing this, which borrows the predictive methodology used in natural science.

NOTES

  • Probabilistic Problem of Evil (Pre-Skeptical Theism)
    1. Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs E
      • Hypothesis I (Hypothesis of Indifference): the universe is the result of indifferent forces
      • State of Affairs E: evil exists
    2. Hypothesis T predicts state of affairs ~E
      • Hypothesis T (Hypothesis of Theism): God created the universe
    3. I and T have equal prior probability
    4. If E obtains, then I is more probable than T
    5. If ~E obtains, then T is more probably than I
    6. E obtains
    7. So, I is more probable than T
    • O1: Skeptical Theism wouldn't predict ~E
  • Probabilistic Problem of Evil (Post-Skeptical Theism)
    1. Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs E
    2. Hypothesis S abstains from predicting E or ~E
      • Hypothesis S: Skeptical Theism
    3. I and S have equal prior probability
    4. If E obtains, then I is more probable than it was before
    5. If ~E obtains, then I is less probable than it was before
    6. If either E or ~E obtains, then the probability of S remains unaffected
    7. E obtains
    8. So, I is more probable than S
  •  Probabilistic Problem of Order
    1. Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs ~O
      • State of Affairs O: the universe displays an intelligible order
    2. Hypothesis S predicts state of affairs O
    3. I and S have equal prior probability
    4. If  ~O obtains, then I is more probable than S
    5. If O obtains, then S is more probable than I
    6. O obtains
    7. So, S is more probable than I

Further Reading

C. S. Lewis "The Problem of Pain"