The classical Problem of Evil attempts to show God's existence is impossible, but things might be easier if we set our sights a little lower. The Probabilistic Problem of Evil attempts to show that the existence of God is improbable. In this video, I will look at a particular strategy for establishing this, which borrows the predictive methodology used in natural science.
NOTES
- Probabilistic Problem of Evil (Pre-Skeptical Theism)
- Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs E
- Hypothesis I (Hypothesis of Indifference): the universe is the result of indifferent forces
- State of Affairs E: evil exists
- Hypothesis T predicts state of affairs ~E
- Hypothesis T (Hypothesis of Theism): God created the universe
- I and T have equal prior probability
- If E obtains, then I is more probable than T
- If ~E obtains, then T is more probably than I
- E obtains
- So, I is more probable than T
- Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs E
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- O1: Skeptical Theism wouldn't predict ~E
- Probabilistic Problem of Evil (Post-Skeptical Theism)
- Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs E
- Hypothesis S abstains from predicting E or ~E
- Hypothesis S: Skeptical Theism
- I and S have equal prior probability
- If E obtains, then I is more probable than it was before
- If ~E obtains, then I is less probable than it was before
- If either E or ~E obtains, then the probability of S remains unaffected
- E obtains
- So, I is more probable than S
- Probabilistic Problem of Order
- Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs ~O
- State of Affairs O: the universe displays an intelligible order
- Hypothesis S predicts state of affairs O
- I and S have equal prior probability
- If ~O obtains, then I is more probable than S
- If O obtains, then S is more probable than I
- O obtains
- So, S is more probable than I
- Hypothesis I predicts state of affairs ~O
Further Reading
C. S. Lewis "The Problem of Pain"
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